More on CD Sales Collapse
March 23, 2007
The collapse of the recorded music industry is now getting reported by the media. Techcrunch is reporting that music sales are collapsing and down 20% from 2006. My Prediction of a 30-50% collapse is easily going to be realized.
Mike's blog post and many of the comments basically assume that recorded music will not be a viable economic model anymore. Artists and entertainers will need to make their money in merchandise, licensing, and live shows. Recorded music is dead.
I for one do not believe that. Recorded music can be reinvented as I commented in his blog post:
There are other avenues than simply saying give the song for free and get them to the show. Are you really happy with the recorded music experience? If not, I and others believe there are opportunities to be explored there to bring value back to the recorded music experience:
http://dylan.projectopus.com/
http://tech.gro...roup/xipf-talk/
I truly believe there is great opportunity in recorded music that will come to the fore as in the next 12-18 months.
The loss of the recorded
The loss of the recorded medium is ridiculous because it, in turn, would spell the death of not only the forefront in social networking online, but decimate the user's ability to control music itself, which is what it's all about. Those that say otherwise know nothing of the music business.
I agree it is a ridiculous notion
In my heart it seems like a ridiculous notion that recorded music is going the way of the DODO as a business unto itself. Still many people (not me) think that is a possibility. Recorded music will just be a "hook" for promoting a brand (the band or entertainer). Many industry participants (Nettwerk?) have resigned themselves or decided to embrace that eventuality.
Still, as I pointed out in the post. I think recorded music will be reborn better than ever.
Are you happy!!
You sound $%@!ING happy with yourself for predicting that a whole industry is goingto die. What kind of person are you? 1000s of people are getting fired from jobs they love. Artists arent going to make a living. How can you be so proud. It's disgusting!
Sorry I did not mean to imply that
First.... no need to be anonymous, gang. This is a dialog, I am interested in your opinions.
Sorry, if I made it sound like I was happy about the decline in CD sales. I have harped enough on it that it may in fact sound like I am happy. So I understand your frustration with me, and would probably feel the same about my posts as you do, if I worked in the industry. I admit that I feel some satisfaction of being "right", but that satisfaction does not mean I feel good about the real human problems this is causing. I apologize if I caused offense.
Let me clarify.
I believed that if the industry had simply embraced the fact that DRM was not a solution early on, they could have made an more elegant (but probably still painful) transition to a new music economy and that we would be far more ahead than we are.
I would also like to comment
I would also like to comment that 'Project Opus' is Facebook a year too late and not an alternative to anything with regards to recorded music. To place those who produce the intellectual property in such a limted and disregarded place is rather arrogant.
It's not an alternative, agreed.
I agree. Project Opus is not an alternative for recorded music. I hope that this project might be:
http://dylan.projectopus.com
This is a project based on open standards that everyone can use. We think it is a good idea so we are pursuing it. If you are in the industry I would hope you can see the validity of it.
I would like to address your FaceBook comment, Project Opus is not a competitor to FaceBook or MySpace. It's a place for musicians and fans to discuss and share the local music scene. Granted we entered the social network arena with all the other Social Networks in 2005/2006, which was challenging from a marketing position. However, we are focused on music experiences. We are working hard on a number of front and have developed some interesting and unique technologies like the Opus Player, Opus Bucks and Shareback, which can be used on any social network not just ProjectOpus.com.
There have been numerous
There have been numerous attempts within the industry to correct problems, such as the belief that direct cell downloads and ringtones will make up for lost revenues. These are placebos, not solutions or realistic directions, and speaking with anyone at the executive level at a major company will reveal that instantly.
Were live performance revenues up for intermediate acts, and live scenes in towns growing, there would be some reason to believe that record music is just a means to making money on that end. But then you look at the Arcade Fire debut and say – 30,000 records was huge in 1997, let alone 2007, and that all done on Merge, an Indy, with outsourced promotion.
People want music, they want to be able to manage it their own way as well. This will never be accomplished through social networking sites as has happened with photography. Not only that – what band that sells, say, 30,000 records in this country makes any real money from merchandising? The reality is that most intermediate bands make enough to roll their merchandise over in production and little else.
A lot of this has to do with the perspectives of people outside of music, not in it – which is typical of anything to do with music to begin with.
I just don't see Live Music being the end all...
Social Networking sites are NOT the answer to the consumption of music. I hope I never said or implied that. Social networking in my point of view is a simple set of tools that service the needs of a community of interest. Projectopus.com is not the answer to recorded music. It was never intended to be. It is simply a site where we provide tools for anyone to discuss, promote, and sell their music. It has served wonderfully in that regard, but more importantly the dialog within the community has helped clarify for us the challenges, artists, managers, and fans are experiencing.
Regarding recorded music: My personal belief is that the purchase of recorded music was not about the audio files but of the music experience:
Vinyl was not just about opening a record sleeve and smelling the plastic. It was about having to go to the stereo and pull your friends around to listen to the music together. This cassette had a lot to do with a portable experience while you drove your car or hung out with friends at the beach or patio. An audio file provides only an ephemeral experience as perhaps the commute with an iPod. I really think that people are craving a more meaningful connection with music. Live performances are a big part of that, but so is recorded music.
I certainly agree with your
I certainly agree with your last statement. I miss the experience of recorded music as well - proper Long Plays, etc. Those days are sadly past, and when deal with today one has to unfortunately look at it from the perspective of a 15 year old who only knows MP3's and digital formats and piecemeal experiences. Which is sad.